China kept earthquake forecasts `secret`

China kept earthquake forecasts `secret`

2.06.2008

CHINESE officials ignored warnings from five eminent seismologists that a strong earthquake would strike the mountainous province of Sichuan this year, including one forecast that almost exactly predicted the date of the tremor that killed almost 69,000 people.

The Government appeared to be trying to suppress evidence of the warnings last week and none of the seismologists could be traced for an interview.

News of the warnings, first disclosed on a Chinese scientist`s blog, has created a storm of criticism on the internet and deepened the rage of bereaved parents in ruined towns such as Mianzhu, where schools collapsed on their pupils, The Australian reports.

Sichuan journalists have questioned the head of the State Earthquake Bureau.

They have asked if forecasts were dismissed because officials did not want anything to disturb preparations for the Olympic torch relay to pass through this month.

The journalists did not receive answers and there has since been little mention of the warnings in the official media; but there is no doubt that the documents cited are authentic.

The first forecast came in a highly technical article published by four seismologists in September 2006 in China`s Journal of Catastrophology.

The four, Long Xiaoxia, Yan Junping, Sun Hu and Wang Zuzheng, calculated that stress factors along the Sichuan-Tibet tectonic fault indicated that a quake measuring above 6.7 on the Richter scale would strike this year.

They suggested the Government should set up emergency headquarters and organise local disaster teams to train city dwellers and farmers how to protect themselves.

There is no evidence that anything was done.

Read more on this story at The Australian

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