 Dire forecast ... the drying Murray-Darling river system may be the least of our worries, according to a grim new climate report / File |
- UN report tips cyclones, disease from climate change
- Murray-Darling level to drop dramatically
- More than 5000 heat-related deaths a year by 2050
CYCLONES and tropical diseases will become more common and more people will die in heatwaves as Australia dries out, according to a new UN report.
The Australian and New Zealand chapter of the UN`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was released today, and it does not make happy reading.
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As well reiterating that the level of the Murray-Darling river system would drop dramatically and crops would struggle as climate change intensified, it also said Aborigines would suffer in an increasingly dry continent.
The IPCC, set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the UN Environment Program, is a collaboration between more than 2500 climate change scientists and 130 governments.
The general findings of its latest report were unveiled in Brussels last week.
"Australia is very much the drying continent," said Dr Jim Salinger, a lead author for the IPCC`s Australasian chapter, today.
Natural hazards, such as a rise in tropical diseases and cyclones were expected to become more common in coming years, resulting in more deaths.
"More health-related deaths in terms of heatwaves and more exposure to pest-borne diseases such as dengue fever. On the coast of course, particularly Queensland, exposure to ...tropical cyclones," Dr Salinger said.
By 2050, 3200-5200 more heat-related deaths per year were expected and up to 1.4 million more people exposed to dengue fever.
According to the final draft copy of the IPCC chapter on Australia and New Zealand, remote Aborigines could face other dangers from climate change.
"Indigenous communities in remote areas of Australia often have inadequate infrastructure, health services and employment ... Existing social disadvantage reduces coping ability and may restrict adaptive capacity," it says.
Extreme rainfall, flooding and salt inundation of freshwater supplies, changes to mangroves and fire regimes, as well as coastal erosion and rises in sea levels could cause problems to some Aboriginal groups.
Dr Salinger said large areas of the country were likely to have less rainfall and soil moisture.
"This has dramatic implications for crop, pastoral and grazier land production over much of southern and eastern Australia. So they are looking at very serious consequences there."
While agricultural yields may initially increase, this would reverse in the next 30-50 years as water stress worsened.
"The cropping areas will be reduced. There is a potential for large drops. It is all the crops that are grown in the riverine areas and the Murray-Darling basin," he said.
He said there would also be a projected drop in Australia`s snow coverage by 20-85 per cent by 2050.
"I believe that the skiing industry may not be an economic proposition. It depends on the rate of warming entirely," he said.
He also warned that climate changes would likely lead to even bigger reductions in the amount of water in the already stressed Murray-Darling river system, used extensively by irrigators.
"By 2050 ... the Murray-Darling flow could decline in the order of one quarter," he said.
Key findings
* Damage to coral reefs, coasts, rainforests, wetlands and alpine areas. Increased disturbance, loss of biodiversity including possible extinctions. Potentially catastrophic for some systems. Reefs may be dominated by macroalgae by 2050 and possible extinctions of endemic vertebrates in Queensland West Tropics. Shrinking glaciers create slope instability.
* Reduction in water supply for irrigation, cities, industry and riverine environments in areas where stream flow declines. In the Murray-Darling Basin, annual mean flow may drop 10-25 per cent by 2050 and 16-48 per cent by 2100.
* Greater coastal inundation and erosion, especially in regions exposed to cyclones and storm surges. Coastal development is exacerbating the climate risks.
* Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. Reduced grain and grape quality. A southward shift of pests and disease vectors. Increased fire risk for forests.
* Design criteria for extreme climatic events, floods and storm surges very likely to be exceeded more frequently. Increased damage likely for buildings, transport structures, telecommunications, energy services and water services.
